Model 01 · Environment
The market is not one continuous mood.
Phidox maps the current market into one of four historically observed environments—then uses that context without pretending it can see the next turn coming.
01
Why context comes first
The same stock signal can mean different things in a calm advance and a broad drawdown. Before Phidox compares securities, it can establish the environment around them: market return, breadth, dispersion, recent volatility, trend, downside participation, and momentum dispersion.
A Gaussian mixture model groups those market-wide observations into four recurring states. The names—calm uptrend, volatile advance, grinding or range-bound, and stress or drawdown—are assigned from the statistics of each group, not from a story written in advance.
02
Description, not prophecy
This model answers “what kind of market does this resemble?” It does not answer “what happens next?” That distinction is deliberate. Regime models are useful when they condition an analysis, and dangerous when a descriptive label is presented as a forecast.
Phidox exposes the confidence and the historical characteristics of the assigned regime so the label can be inspected instead of merely trusted.
03
Where the model stops
- Regime boundaries are fitted on the full history, so old labels benefit from hindsight.
- A high-confidence label can still change sharply when market conditions move.
- The model describes the market cross-section; it does not predict a security’s return.
Try it in the analyst
“What market regime are we in, and how have stocks behaved in similar months?”Ask this question