Model 03 · Fundamentals
Read the quarter beneath the headline.
Phidox scores the numerical quality of a quarterly filing against what historically mattered over the following three months.
01
Numbers with a clock attached
A quarter ends before its filing becomes public. Phidox joins fundamentals using the accepted date, not the period end, so historical tests never give the model information investors could not yet have seen.
The model studies growth, margin direction, cash conversion, accruals, leverage, returns on capital, asset growth, and earnings surprises. Its target is the stock’s three-month return after publication, measured relative to the market.
02
A lens, not a verdict
The useful output is the ordering across a cohort of reports. Across 66 out-of-sample quarters, the model’s average rank correlation was positive but small. That can help an analyst triage hundreds of filings. It cannot turn one company’s score into a decision by itself.
The current model reads reported numbers, not management prose or guidance. Phidox states that boundary clearly instead of manufacturing sentiment from data it does not have.
03
Where the model stops
- The score covers filing numbers, not management commentary or guidance.
- It is a relative ranking, not a prediction that the stock price will rise.
- The signal is intentionally reported as weak; use it to sort a field, never as a verdict.
Try it in the analyst
“Compare the quality of the latest quarterly reports from the largest semiconductor companies.”Ask this question